The Dynamics of Children's Schooling during the Demographic Transition in Brazil: Increasing Cohort Size versus Decreasing Family Size

David Lam, University of Michigan
Leticia Marteleto, University of Michigan

We analyze the effects of changing age structure and family size on schooling in Brazil. We show that the size of cohorts entering school peaked in 1990, a peak which coincides with the onset of increases in school enrollment rates in the 1990s. We also examine the role of changing family size. During the 1980s there was a tradeoff between cohort size and family size for children entering school, with decreasing numbers of siblings helping offset the effect of the increasing school-age population. Cohorts born after 1982 experience both decreasing cohort size at the population level and decreasing numbers of siblings at the family level. Using household surveys from 1977-99, we analyze the extent to which these two demographic effects, one at the population level and one at the family level, help explain both the poor performance of Brazilian education in the 1980s and the substantial improvements in the 1990s.