Stationary Population as Vision for the Future: An Exercise in Normative Projection

M.V. George, Statistics Canada
Rejean Lachapelle, Statistics Canada
Anatole Romaniuc, University of Alberta

The population growth in developed countries is undergoing a demographic deceleration with a distinct possibility of an implosion in the near future. The underlying factor is obviously the sharp and sustained decline in fertility. The fertility has settled at the sub-replacement level, and it seems that it could become a lasting feature of the economically advanced societies. The concern of ever growing population is being replaced by the concern of ever diminishing population. Maybe it is time, therefore, to revisit the concept of stationary population, as theoretical proposition and possibly as a policy option. Its virtue is that it places a lesser demand on childbearing performance of a modern consumer-oriented society, and lessens the need for a sustained large-scale immigration. The Canadian demographic experience serves as a case study for the application of the concept of stationary population.