Leaving Home: Modeling the Effect of Civic and Economic Structure on Individual Migration Patterns

Michael Irwin, Duquesne University
Troy Blanchard, Mississippi State University
Charles Tolbert, Baylor University
Alfred Nucci, U.S. Census Bureau
Thomas Lyson, Cornell University

This research analyzes the effect of community structure upon individuals' probabilities of moving, between 1985 and 1990. Using the full Census sample microdata for 1990, we re-allocate the 1990 population to their 1985 place of residence. Then, using 1985 community structural variables (derived from the Economic Census microdata) and individual characteristics (from Decennial Census microdata), we develop a two level hierarchical linear model. In level 1 we construct a logistic equation modeling individual probabilities of moving. In level 2 we model the contextual effects of 1985 community structure on these models. These contextual effects fall into two categories: 1) economic conditions that comprise the usual aggregate 'push' factors associated and 2) community social capital factors that act to retain people in their community. Results specify the relationship between community context and individual migration patterns, and demonstrate effects of local economic structure and local civic structure on these individual probabilities.