Changes in the Cat and Mouse Game at the Mexico-U.S. Border: Consequences of Immigration Reform

Katharine M. Donato, Rice University

Since mid-century, illegal immigration to the United States has emerged as a hotly contested public policy issue. Congress first passed the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA), the first U.S. legislation designed to curb illegal immigration, and ten years later, it passed the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act (IIRIRA), a "get tough" bill strengthening many of IRCA's provisions. This paper assesses the extent to which reforms have deterred illegal migration from Mexico over the long run and shifted border-crossing behavior of women and men. We estimate trends in the probability of taking a first illegal trip, and probabilities of women's and men's use of border smugglers and being apprehended. The evidence suggests no significant overall deterrence of undocumented migration. However, it does suggest that the game of cat and mouse played at the border shifts annually and that it depends on who is migrating, men or women.