Are Proportions of Young Males and Measures of Institutional Capacity Meaningful Indicators of Vulnerability to Intra-State Conflict?

Richard Cincotta, Population Action International

In 1967, historian Herbert Moller hypothesized that high proportions of young males in a society could lead to violent conflict. Mesquida and Weiner have recently shown that the ratios of young adult males to older males of countries in conflict have been significantly and positively correlated to conflict-related mortality. These findings, however, address the magnitude of conflicts rather than state vulnerability. This paper uses Uppsala University's Conflict Data Set (1988-2000), 1985 demographic and development indicators, and goodness-of-fit tests to examine hypotheses that intra-state conflict vulnerability is related to high proportions of young males (YM); low institutional capacity (HDI); or a combination thereof. From among these hypotheses, it was most difficult to reject the notion that HDI is a meaningful indicator of vulnerability. YM was less difficult to reject, but only marginally more difficult to reject than a null hypothesis: that location matters most to state vulnerability to conflict.