Combining Prevalence and Mortality Risk Rates: Illuminating the Risks of Cigarette Smoking

Richard G. Rogers, University of Colorado
Patrick M. Krueger, University of Colorado at Boulder
S. Jay Olshansky, University of Illinois at Chicago

Considerable attention has been devoted to the impact of cigarette smoking on U.S. health and mortality. Yet little attention has focused on the interrelations of smoking with other risk factors and on the combined influences of smoking prevalence, population size, and mortality risk on aggregate figures. To calculate this impact, we employ the National Health Interview Survey, linked to the Multiple Cause of Death file. Cigarette smoking is a particularly pernicious behavior because of its high prevalence - with about one-half of the population currently smoking or having smoked in the past - and high risk of death-compared to never smokers, heavy smokers can expect to live almost 14 fewer years. Better knowledge of the prevalence and mortal risk of various cigarette smoking scenarios illuminates the future health and longevity prospects of the entire population.