The Contribution of Mexican Immigration to U.S. Population Rejuvenation: A Mexican Birth Cohort Approach

Stefan H. Jonsson, Pennsylvania State University
Michael Rendall, University of London

Population projections that address how much immigration and immigrant fertility may slow down population aging in the U.S. suffer from problems associated with estimating immigrant stocks and flows. We propose an alternative method that projects directly the number of births in the U.S. to Mexican-born mothers. The method also takes into account the demographics of the sending country, which often is ignored in projections. The projection uses a U.S. fertility rate for Mexican-born women, estimated from a numerator of birth registrations in the U.S. and a denominator of estimates of zero-year-olds 15 to 44 years earlier in Mexico. This and two alternative projection methods are compared to observed numbers of births in 1999, with favorable results indicated for the Mexican birth cohort projection method. The results also suggest that the future contribution of Mexican immigration to U.S. population rejuvenation may be greater than has been implied by previous projections.