Smoking-Attributable Mortality in Ukraine, 1965-1994

Lisa M. Godek, Pfizer Inc.

This analysis quantifies the effect of tobacco on mortality in Ukraine between the years of 1965 and 1994. Using age- and sex-specific cause of death data from Ukraine for the 30 year period, I use indirect estimation to derive a conservative account of the proportion of overall mortality befalling working age Ukrainians that may be attributed to smoking. The results show that tobacco is the leading killer of Ukrainian working age males, accounting for between 27 and 37 percent of their deaths between 1965 and 1994. Smoking is one of the main causes behind the worsening prospects for survival among Ukrainian males and behind the increasing gender gap in mortality in Ukraine during this period. Moreover, there is evidence of a cohort effect on tobacco-related mortality, with male combatants from World War II experiencing higher levels of premature mortality attributable to cigarette smoking than all other cohorts.