Self-Selection, Earnings, and Outmigration of Immigrants: A Longitudinal Study

Amelie Constant, University of Pennsylvania

In this paper we seek to deepen understanding of outmigration as a social and economic process and to investigate whether cross-sectional earnings assimilation results suffer from selection bias. To model the process of outmigration we conduct a detailed event history analysis of men and women immigrants in Germany, surveyed by the GSOEP. Our 17-year longitudinal study reveals pronounced negative selectivity with respect to time since migration and to stable full time employment. Our results show no selectivity with respect to human capital, earnings, occupational achievements, or gender. Further, we find that the likelihood of return migration is also strongly determined by the range and nature of social attachments to Germany and origin countries, and that the effect of age is mildly curvilinear. Finally, we were not able to confirm the hypothesis that selective return migration biases cross-sectional assimilation results.