Infant Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cross-National Study of Social and Economic Influences

Elizabeth Mogford, University of Washington

This study investigates economic development versus social capital perspectives of declines in infant mortality using World Bank data on 42 sub-Saharan African countries. Women's education, foreign debt-to-export ratio, and national income level are among the strongest correlates of infant mortality. Cross-sectional multivariate regressions show women's education to be the best single predictor of infant mortality. Furthermore, longitudinal results suggest that female education explains the majority of decreases in mortality, regardless of time. The beneficial effect of income on reductions in mortality decreased from 1970 to 1997. Part of this may be explained by the increasing significance of foreign debt on retarding mortality declines, indicating that economic theories of development could be broadened to consider exogenous income factors. In 1997 the effect of AIDS on infant mortality was small yet significant. AIDS correlates highly with most development indicators, suggesting that increasing rates will impact society on multiple levels.