The Evaluation of Small Area Estimates Produced by the Private Sector

Ken Hodges, Claritas, Inc.
Andrea Poveromo, Claritas, Inc.
Fred Wilcox, Claritas, Inc.

The paper reports the evaluation of the 2000 population and household estimates produced by Claritas Inc. for block groups and larger areas nationwide. Several measures are examined, including mean absolute percent error, bias, error distribution, and the extent to which estimates improve on the use of the previous census counts. Because private sector suppliers did not produce block group estimates until after 1990, this is the first description of error rates for nationwide estimates at this level. At the census tract level, where the private sector has produced estimates for over 25 years, the 2000 evaluation is compared with similar evaluations against the 1990 and 1980 censuses. A separate evaluation of "pre-control" estimates describes the extent to which the final tract level estimates were improved (or not) by adjustment to control totals based on place and county estimates produced by the Census Bureau.