US Fertility Timing and Parity Progression: Ethnic Differentials and Comparative Perspective

Jose A. Ortega, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid
Ward Kingkade, U.S. Census Bureau

Recent methodological developments suggest that period TFRs are biased downwards in times of fertility postponement, and are also affected by the parity distribution of women (Bongaarts and Feeney 1998; Kohler and Ortega 2002; Ortega and Kohler 2002). Based on these methods, we study U.S. fertility trends providing a decomposition of the Period TFR in a pure fertility component (the Period Fertility Index), a mean tempo effect, and a parity distribution effect. We also provide projections of Completed Cohort Fertility for different postponement scenarios. The analysis of ethnic differentials in fertility and the comparison of the United States to several other developed countries with lower fertility levels provides important insights into the determinants of the relatively high U.S. fertility levels. It is based on a new database of fertility rates and childbearing intensities by parity established at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and the U.S. Bureau of the Census.