Projecting Numbers of Orphans in the Presence of an AIDS Epidemic

Leigh Johnson, University of Cape Town
Rob Dorrington, University of Cape Town

This paper describes a method used for estimating the number of maternal orphans, incorporating the effects of HIV on both fertility and mortality. The method also allows for differences in paediatric HIV survival (according to mode of infection), and for improving non-HIV childhood mortality over time, making use of the ASSA2000 suite of models. In addition the number of dual orphans (i.e., children that have lost both parents) is estimated. The model is applied to South Africa in detail as well as to a number of other sub-Saharan African countries. The model produces results which are lower than other models, but on the basis of comparison with the results from DHSs and the methods underlying other models it is argued that these results are reasonable. In addition the model is used to anticipate the impact of sexual behavioral change and interventions (such as antiretroviral treatment) on the number of orphans.