Modeling Fertility Transition in Egypt

Hassan H.M. Zaky, American University in Cairo

A model is estimated to approximate the relationships among three related fertility desires, namely future fertility desires, current use of contraception and current employment status, as reported by married females. The model is used to identify the position of fertility transition in Egypt within societies. The study uses the 1995 Egypt Demographic and Health Survey and the probit maximum likelihood method to estimate the model. The findings indicate that future fertility desires and contraceptive use are becoming endogenous to each other. The relationship between female employment and fertility desires is not in the expected direction for a country undergoing its fertility transition, and not typical of a country at post-transitional stage of fertility. The dynamics behind such relationship is not yet that of the wife's opportunity cost. The idea of rational choices and shifts in fertility is not yet valid in Egypt. One should not expect further dramatic decline in fertility.