Bearing Children in Unstable Times: Psychological Traits and Early Parenthood in an Extremely Low Fertility Context, Rostock 1990 - 1995

Holger R. von der Lippe, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Olaf Reis, University of Rostock

How can psychological research and the application of extensive micro-level measures contribute to our understanding of fertility differentials? In this paper, we analyze a unique longitudinal data set from Rostock in eastern Germany. Data collection began in the communist era and has been followed up until after German re-unification, after which fertility has declined to exceptionally low levels (TFR=0.77 in 1993). Employing Cox proportional-hazard models, we use individual-level measures (such as personality traits, social and cognitive resources, coping styles, perceived action control, values, attitudes, wishes, and fears) at age 20 as determinants of subjects' subsequent transition to parenthood. We show that personality traits, wishes, and personal resources all have a significant influence, sometimes in a surprising and counter-intuitive way. We conclude that psychological individual-level data are important for an understanding of childbearing decisions and differential fertility in a population, especially during times when society faces massive and incalculable upheavals.