Selection Effects on Geographical Differences in Survival

Graziella Caselli, Università La Sapienza
Elisabetta Barbi, University of Rome

This paper, by considering longitudinal data, analyses geographical differences in mortality among the old and oldest old accounting for mortality experienced at earlier ages. Our goal is to shed light on the role played by selection or debilitation factors on elderly survival for populations affected differently by mortality at previous ages. Mortality data of the cohorts born between 1888 and 1892 in four selected Italian regions (Lombardy, Tuscany, Calabria and Sicily), each characterized by a particular intensity or specific age or sex structure of mortality, were analyzed from age 60 to age 95 for both women and men. Preliminary results show very different estimates of the average frailty of the cohorts and the rate of ageing for the four analyzed regions, giving scope to the role exercised by selection and debilitation processes.