Mortality Crisis in Russia: New Health Threats

Natalia S. Gavrilova, University of Chicago
Victoria G. Semyonova, Russian Ministry of Health
Galina N. Evdokushkina, Russian Ministry of Health

In 1992 and 1998 Russia experienced two economic crises accompanied by subsequent mortality upsurge. Using exploratory factor analysis of age-adjusted mortality from major causes of death, this study shows that more than 95% of the total variation in mortality in Russia can be explained by 3 factors: (1) factor related to social stress, correlated with mortality from ischaemic heart disease and alcohol poisoning; (2) factor of asocial behavior, correlated to mortality from tuberculosis, drug dependence, AIDS, sexually transmitted diseases; and (3) factor related to selective mortality, correlated to mortality from some chronic diseases (diabetes, asthma). Our analysis demonstrates that diseases related to the second mortality factor will determine the future mortality changes in Russia. These diseases, more common among younger age groups, are becoming a serious threat for population health in Russia and may affect other countries.