The Migration Response to Economic Shock: Lessons from Kazakhstan

Charles Becker, University of Colorado
Yerbolat Mussabek, Kazakhstan National Statistical Agency
Ai-Gul Seitenova, Pragma Corporation
Dina Urzhumova, Pragma Corporation

This paper investigates the determinants of migration between Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation for the period 1995-1999. The paper draws on a unique vital registration database of all legal migration between the two countries. These data are reconciled between the two statistical agencies, and provide information on monthly migration flows by age and (rural or urban) location. This time series enables us to estimate both responsiveness and lag structure of those responses to macroeconomic shocks for different groups, using a detailed, consistent economic database for the two countries. Migration responds very quickly to clear news such as exchange rate shocks, and "threshold effects" - migration responds abnormally to dramatic events, such as the August 1998 Russian financial crisis. Investment and construction activity have longer lags, while real wage effects are greatest, but have the longest lags. Differentials in real pension rates have small effects even for elderly migrants.