The Changing Demography of Kinship in the Arab Region: A Microsimulation Analysis

John Casterline, Population Council
Laila El-Zeini, American University in Cairo

This paper examines the impact of demographic change on the structure of lateral kin relationships (siblings and cousin) in the Arab region. Lateral kin relationships are important in all societies, perhaps especially so in Arab society. Using the method of microsimulation, with demographic survey data providing input distributions, kin sets are generated for three Arab countries (Egypt, Morocco, and Yemen) for cohorts born in the period since 1930. The sib sets and cousins sets are analyzed in terms of size, composition, and density. The emphasis is on change over the life course and across cohorts. As expected, fertility has a powerful effect on sib and cousin configurations. But effects of mortality are surprisingly large, and country-specific nuptiality patterns also show an impact. One outcome, often unnoticed, of demographic transition is a more rigid age-segregation of the generations, which in turn may have important social, economic, and political repercussions.