Understanding United States Foreign-Born Emigration: Theory, Methodology, and Underlying Trends

Betsy Guzman, U.S. Census Bureau
Tammany J. Mulder, U.S. Census Bureau
Nolan J. Malone, University of Pennsylvania

Research on migration in the United States largely overlooks emigration. Consequently, we address the need to understand the theory behind the methodology, historical trends, and policy contexts within which foreign-born transnational migration occurs. We posit that a residual methodology fails to consider inconsistencies between theory and population changes. An evolving concept like emigration requires an evolving methodology to encompass all the forces that affect decisions to stay, to return, and to migrate once again. We compare published estimates to document and discern differentials that currently exist and may arise in the future. Ahmed and Robinson (1994) developed estimates using a residual methodology, which are compared to personal experiences recorded in the Mexican Migration Project to inform the evaluation of the residual methodology, and suggest improvements that better reflect observed trends. Our findings reveal that the dynamic nature of transnational migration requires new and creative thinking in the area of emigration.