Explaining Trends in Nonmarital Teen Birth Rates: 1981-1996

Leonard M. Lopoo, Princeton University

National Center for Health Statistics data show a dramatic decline in nonmarital teenage birth rates, particularly for African Americans, during the 1990s. This decline followed a decade when nonmarital teenage birth rates rose rapidly. The cause of this unusual trend is not widely understood. Using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we model the trend in nonmarital births among both African American and non-African American teenagers from 1981 to 1996. Using a discrete-time event history model allows me to compare the influence of four potential explanations: changes in the age distribution of teenagers, changes in the opportunity cost of births, changes in Child Support Enforcement and welfare policies, and fear of AIDS transmission.