How Will Welfare Reform Affect Childbearing and Family Structure Decisions?

Robert D. Plotnick, University of Washington
Elizabeth Peters, Cornell University
Se-Ook Jeong, University of Washington

Our analysis summarizes changes in key elements of welfare policy as well as changes in closely related policies on child support enforcement and sex education and family planning programs. We conclude that, as Congress intended, reform has shifted welfare's incentives in directions that encourage marriage and discourage nonmarital childbearing, childbearing while on welfare, divorce, living independently from relatives, and avoiding child support responsibilities. To assess whether the changed incentives will make much difference in behavior, we review empirical evidence about welfare's demographic effects. The general tenor of the evidence is that behavioral effects consistent with theoretical expectations and policy makers' intentions do exist. Their magnitudes are small or uncertain. A tentative "bottom line" is that one should not expect welfare reform to dramatically alter low income Americans' demographic behavior, but can expect it to have modest effects in the directions desired by policymakers.