An Empirical Study of Children Quantity and Quality Tradeoff in Rural China

Jianlin Niu, Peking University

This article studies the children quantity-quality tradeoff in rural China, examines existing theories and explores frameworks to fit current situation. The data are from a survey concerning married women's fertility behavior and preferences in rural Henan in mid-2001. By defining children quality as the combination of children's sex and education, while children quantity as the number of children, the article uses logistic regressions and other descriptive statistics, concludes that despite the widely accepted opinion that rural China cannot display this tradeoff for its underdevelopment, children quality substituting for quantity in rural Henan has been found considerably popular, stable, and independent. The tradeoff phenomenon has demonstrated the prospective in population transition of rural China. Although the results show certain agreement to the western theories, there are still many specifications in rural China ignored in those frameworks. It is to develop a new framework to better fit the specifications in rural China.