Estimates of Prevalence and Trends in Old-Age Disability: Another Look Using Data from the National Long-Term Care Surveys

Larry S. Corder, Duke University
Kenneth C. Land, Duke University
Eric Stallard, Duke University

How prevalent are various levels and patterns of disability among the U. S. elderly population? Has the widely corroborated decline in disability prevalence since 1980 continued, accelerated, or declined in recent years? Are the declines in disability prevalence limited to certain levels of disability and segments of the elderly population? These and related questions have led to a lively scientific literature in recent years. This paper examines these issues using data from the five waves of the National Long-Term Care Surveys: 1982, 1984, 1989, 1994, and 1999. Issues of sample weights for complex sample designs and the treatment of non-response are discussed. Estimates of prevalence of disability and trends therein are produced and compared to published estimates from the NLTCS and other studies. The similarities and differences among the estimates are discussed.