Effects of the One-Child Policy on the Number and Sex Composition of Chinese Children

Guanghui Li, University of Washington

There is a debate in literature on whether the fertility decline in China is mainly attributable to the One-Child policy or to socioeconomic development after the economic reform. This paper addresses this debate by presenting evidence from China Health and Nutrition Survey. CHNS is a three-year panel data with detailed information on the One-Child policy variations in 190 communities as well as individual household characteristics from 1989 to 1993. This paper utilizes the local variations in the policy variables to access the impact of the One-Child policy on the number and sex composition of Chinese children. Analysis based on the cross-sectional count model indicates that the policy successfully reduced the fertility level despite the significant influence from socioeconomic variables. Fixed effect model analysis confirms the influence. In addition, the results show that the strength of the One-Child policy and the sex composition of children in each community are highly correlated.