Do Parents of Girls Really Have a Higher Risk of Divorce?

S. Philip Morgan, Duke University
Michael S. Pollard, Duke University

We re-examine the Morgan et al. (1988) finding that sons reduce the risk of marital disruption more than do daughters. Using pooled CPS data, our results replicate earlier findings. However, we are able to show that the effect has declined across time. The effect of having girls, while modest in size, was clearly visible for those who married in the 1960s but is quite small and statistically insignificant for those marrying after 1975. We describe these results and again stress that the import of this finding was substantive - i.e., the suggestion that parental involvement by husbands is stability producing. The fact that the effect of sex-of-children has waned in the past several decades is entirely consistent with our earlier arguments. Specifically, the changes in gender structure over the past several decades are expected to weaken the connection between a child's sex and the father's involvement with his child.