Can the Level of Brazilian Fertility Be Even Lower?

Tiziana Leone, University of Southampton

The Brazilian TFR plummeted from 6.2 in 1960 to 2.0 in 2001, bringing Brazil into the group of countries with a low level of fertility. Despite the substantial decline, there has been an increase in union instability, which has been shown to increase the level of fertility in Brazil, and an increase of the contribution of teenage pregnancies to the overall level of fertility. We argue that Brazil represents a case of rapid fertility transition where, were it not for specific characteristics of teenagers and consensual unions, the TFR could reach even lower levels. In the absence of other methods, the fertility decline in Brazil is primarily due to the increased prevalence of female sterilization. Desegregating the fertility indicators of different groups of women, we have found that the decline would have been more rapid in the absence of the increase in teenage pregnancy and union instability.