Demographic Composition and Projections of Car Use in Austria

Alexia Fuernkranz-Prskawetz, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Leiwen Jiang, Peking University
Brian O'Neill, Brown University

Understanding the factors driving demand for transportation in industrialized countries is important for addressing various environmental issues (e.g., air pollution and climate change). Although non-economic factors receive less attention, recent research finds that demographic factors are important. While some studies apply a detailed demographic composition to analyze past developments of transportation demand, projections for the future are mainly restricted to aggregate demographic variables. Here we go beyond previous work by combining cross-sectional analysis of car use in Austria with detailed household projections. We show that projections are sensitive to the particular type of demographic disaggregation employed. The highest projected car use - an increase of 26% between 1996 and 2046 - is obtained if we apply the value of car use per household. For a composition that differentiates between household size and age of the household head, car use is projected to decrease by 7% during the same period.