Low Fertility: Unifying the Theory and the Demography

Peter McDonald, Australian National University

In recent years, particularly in European countries, there has been a leap forward in the study of the demography of low fertility including such factors as the timing of the first birth, parity progression ratios, the extent of 'recuperation' for a late start to childbearing, and completed cohort parity distributions. Much of this work is set in a quantum versus tempo framework. Some of these studies have examined the linkages between changes in the demography of low fertility and particular changes in social policy or social changes such as increasing education levels or unemployment levels among young people. These studies enable a reassessment of theories of low fertility. How consistent are particular theories with the emerging empirical research? This paper reviews the empirical studies and assesses their implications for theory with the aim of achieving a more unified theory of low fertility.