Spatial Patterns as Predictors of Fertility in Cairo, Egypt

John R. Weeks, San Diego State University
Arthur Getis, San Diego State University
Douglas A. Stow, San Diego State University
Tarek Rashed, San Diego State University
Xiaoling Yang, San Diego State University
Saad Gadalla, San Diego State University

We use data from the 1996 census of Egypt to show that spatial location is an important predictor of fertility levels in Cairo, Egypt. In an ordinary regression equation, it appears that levels of female education and the percentage of women married in a shiakha (equivalent to a census tract or enumeration district) are the principal correlates of fertility. However, that model is misspecified because it ignores the substantial spatial autocorrelation that exists in the data. Using both the Getis/Ord spatial filtering approach and the Fotheringham et al. Geographically Weighted Regression approach, we show that nearly two-thirds of the variability in fertility in Cairo is accounted for by where people live, and about one-third is accounted for by sociodemographic characteristics independent of location. We then show that these spatial patterns of fertility are highly correlated with variability in the urban scene as classified from remotely sensed images. Implications for further demographic inquiry using these techniques are explored.